Homeownership 101

Is it a buyer’s market in Dallas? How to tell for the home you want

Jeff Updike & Weston Pugh · Dave Perry-Miller Real Estate · Updated October 2026

Rates are over 7 percent, more sellers are cutting their price, and everyone at dinner wants to know if buyers finally have the upper hand. The honest answer is that it depends on where you look and what you are buying.

Nationally and across Texas, the market is balanced and leaning toward buyers. In Dallas, single-family homes sit right on the line between a seller’s market and a balanced one, while condominiums are a genuine buyer’s market. Here is how we measure it, the numbers behind each verdict, and how to read the market for the one home you actually care about.

From the show. This page expands the Homeownership 101 segment of Episode 360 of SOLD with Updike Pugh, published 9 October 2026. The video below starts at that segment.

SOLD with Updike Pugh, Episode 360: Homeownership 101, is it a buyer’s market?

The yardstick: months of supply

Months of supply answers one question: if nobody listed another home, how long would it take to sell everything on the market at the current pace of sales? The rule of thumb we use is simple. Under about four months, sellers have the edge. Four to six months is balanced. Over six, buyers are in charge. Researchers draw those lines in slightly different places, so treat the boundaries as approximate, not as law.

Supply is the headline, but it is not the whole story. We check the same handful of signals at every level:

• The median sale price, and whether it is up or down from a year ago
• How many days homes sit before they sell
• How close to the asking price they sell, and how many sellers are cutting their price
• Whether listings are piling up or thinning out
• Mortgage rates, because they decide what a buyer can actually afford

Nationally: balanced, leaning toward buyers

Months of supply, August	4.9, the highest in more than ten years1
Median existing-home price	$429,100, up 1.6% from a year earlier: the 38th straight month of yearly gains1
Sales pace	3.98 million a year, down 2.0% from July1
Listings with a price cut, September	20.8%, the highest September reading since 20182
Active listings	Up 5.4% from a year earlier; a median of 61 days on market2

Prices have not cracked nationally. They have stopped sprinting. And the country is not one market: Realtor.com found inventory up more than 11 percent from a year earlier in the Northeast and Midwest, against 2.6 percent in the South, where 21.6 percent of listings had a price cut.² Rates are what is holding buyers back from using the leverage they have.

Texas: further into balanced territory

Months of supply, July	5.53
Median price	$339,000, down 0.2% from a year earlier3
Sales	Up 2.2%3
Days on market	633
Typical price cut	About $13,000, or 3.6% off the original list price3

Years of steady new construction are part of the reason. Builders kept supply flowing and bought down mortgage rates to move homes, and resale sellers have had to compete with that. Owning costs matter too: the Dallas Fed found the median Texas homeowners insurance premium rose 60 percent from 2019 to 2024, against 30 percent nationally.⁴ On the other side of the ledger, the school homestead exemption is now $140,000, with an extra $60,000 for owners 65 or older or disabled.⁵

The big metros are not moving together. Austin is the soft spot, with its median list price down 9.8 percent from a year earlier in September.² San Antonio had a 6.2-month supply in July, which is buyer territory.³ Houston had 5.3 months of single-family supply in August, with the median down 1.5 percent.⁶ Dallas-Fort Worth was the tightest of the four at 4.6 months in July, with active listings down 4.3 percent.³

Dallas: houses at the line, condos a buyer’s market

August 2026, NTREIS	Months of supply	Sold vs. list
Single-family, DFW	4.3	94.8%
Single-family, Dallas County	4.0	–
Townhomes, DFW	5.9	93.8%
Condominiums, DFW	8.7	90.8%

MetroTex NTREIS Monthly MLS Summary Report, August 2026.⁷ The single-family sold-to-list figure is for the DFW metro.

For houses, Dallas is sitting right on the line between a seller’s market and a balanced one. The Dallas County median was $369,000, down about 1 percent, and homes spent 48 days on market in the county and 58 across DFW.⁷

The part people miss is that both sides pulled back. Across DFW, active listings were down 6 percent from a year earlier, new listings were down 10 percent and pending sales were down 11 percent.⁷ Fewer homes coming to market is what has held prices steady with rates above 7 percent. Price cuts are common, though: Realtor.com counted 27.5 percent of DFW listings with a cut in September, above the national rate.² A lot of sellers listed at spring prices and the market answered them. Underneath it, the region is still adding jobs, about 1.2 percent over the year to July.⁸

For single-family homes, sellers who price well still win. For condos, buyers are in control.

Why one number will not answer it for your street

Every verdict above is an average, and Dallas is not one market. The property type matters most: a condo and a house a few blocks apart can sit in completely different markets, as the table above shows. So does the ZIP code, and the price band within it.

The ZIP-level numbers need care, because small samples swing hard. In 75230, the median sale price in September 2026 was up 82.5 percent from a year earlier, on just 23 closings. Homes there did not become 82 percent more valuable. A cluster of large new builds happened to close that month, and last September’s median started low. Over the past twelve months the monthly median in 75230 has ranged from $710,000 to about $1.75 million.⁹ The steadier signal in that ZIP was what sellers actually got: 92.3 percent of their original asking price, the lowest September reading since at least 2023.⁹

To read your own market, ask for months of supply and the sold-to-original-price ratio for your property type, in your ZIP code or neighborhood, over the last three to six months rather than a single month. Compare price per square foot on homes like yours, not the headline median. That is the number we pull for clients, and it is what our Market Watch page tracks by ZIP.

What the rate means in real money

Freddie Mac’s average 30-year fixed rate was 7.28 percent on 1 October 2026 and 7.40 percent on 8 October, up from about 6.3 percent a year earlier.¹⁰ On the same $400,000 loan, that is the difference between these monthly payments:

$400,000, 30-year fixed	Rate	Principal and interest
A year ago	6.34%	$2,486
1 October 2026	7.28%	$2,737
8 October 2026	7.40%	$2,770

Our calculation from the Freddie Mac rates; principal and interest only, before taxes, insurance and HOA dues.¹⁰

That is about $250 to $280 a month more for the same house. The Federal Reserve raised its benchmark range a quarter point on 16 September, to 3.75 to 4 percent, and meets again on 27 and 28 October.¹¹ We would not plan a purchase around rates falling this fall.

What it means for you

If you are buying a house

You have more time and more choice than you did a few years ago, but well-priced homes still sell close to asking. Ask how long a house has been on the market and whether the price has already been cut. A home that has sat is where your leverage is; a fresh, well-priced listing is not.

If you are buying a condo

This is where buyers hold the cards. Use the time to read the HOA budget, the reserve study and the insurance policy before you fall for the view, and negotiate accordingly. The finished, updated units with healthy associations are the ones that hold their value.

If you are selling

Your first two weeks matter most, and your first price is the one that counts. Price against what is actually for sale and selling for your property type in your ZIP code right now, not against a neighbor’s sale from 2022. List at a spring price in a fall market and the market will mark it down for you. If you are thinking about it, start with how we price a home.

Quick answers

Market figures are as of the months stated and change monthly. Months-of-supply thresholds are a rule of thumb, not a standard. Nothing here is a valuation of a specific property, and mortgage rates change weekly; this is general information, not lending or financial advice. Jeff Updike and Weston Pugh are licensed Texas real estate agents with Dave Perry-Miller Real Estate. Equal Housing Opportunity.